Written by Telangana Assembly Elections 2023: ABP-CVoter Survey Predicts Close Contest Between BRS and Congress
The Telangana Assembly elections 2023 are scheduled to be held on November 30, and the results will be declared on December 3, along with four other states – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Mizoram. The Election Commission of India announced the dates of the polls on Monday, October 9.
According to the latest opinion poll conducted by ABP and CVoter, the Telangana elections are likely to witness a close contest between the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) led by Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao and the Congress party. The survey has predicted a hung Assembly in the southern state, with neither party getting a clear majority.
The ABP-CVoter survey has projected that the BRS may win between 43 to 55 seats out of the total 119 seats in the Assembly, while the Congress may secure between 48 to 60 seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), despite having prominent leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah campaigning for it, may only manage to get between 5 to 11 seats.
The survey has also revealed the vote share of the parties in Telangana. The Congress is expected to gain nearly 39% of the votes, an increase of 10.5% from the last elections in 2018. The BRS is expected to get 37% of the votes, a decrease of 9.4% from the previous polls. The BJP is also projected to increase its vote share by 9.3%, reaching 16% of the votes.
The Telangana elections are mainly a three-cornered battle between the BRS, the Congress, and the BJP. The BRS is seeking another term in power, while the Congress is trying to oust CM KCR and form the government. The BJP is aiming to expand its presence in the south and challenge the regional parties.
In the 2018 elections, the BRS emerged as the single-largest party with 88 seats and a vote share of 47.4%. The Congress was a distant second with 19 seats and a vote share of 28.7%. The BJP contested on 117 seats but won only one seat with a vote share of 6.7%.
The ABP-CVoter survey is based on personal interviews conducted among 18+ adults statewide, all confirmed voters (sample size 11,928). The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the state. The margin of error is +/- 3% at macro level and +/- 5% at micro level with 95% confidence interval.